Weekly Trends and American Qualifiers Meta

Do you feel the hype for the upcoming The International 4? We certainly do. Apart from being the biggest event in e-sports each year it is also the time during which the meta tends to shift almost every day, even within a single region. Coming up with new strategies or using unconventional heroes as a part of a pocket strategy is more than viable since the 6.80 and 6.81 patches, both of which have a great amount of buffs to the underused heroes.

Today I would like to go through the most popular picks in the TI4 American Qualifiers and look at the impact it possibly had on the public matchmaking. Whether you are interested in the game and would like to understand it better, or simply want to get the Compendium predictions right - we are here to help.

Shall we begin?

American Meta

I will start off with a table, showing all heroes that have an appearance rate of over 10 (Picks + Bans):

Popularity

As you can see the nerfs to Batrider Batrider's Flaming Lasso Flaming Lasso did not hit his popularity, as discussed previously, making him the top priority pick/ban throughout the whole event (100% Pick/Ban). At the same time, his Win Rate is surprisingly low, especially for a hero that does not only posses one of the strongest single target, BkB-penetrating disables, but is also great at flash-farming his own or even enemy jungle and getting his core items (Blink Dagger Blink Dagger) really fast.

A major influence on that, in my opinion, is the rise of the popularity of Shadow Demon Shadow Demon, that can counter the Flaming Lasso Flaming Lasso initiation really well. After receiving a nerf to the vision on Shadow Poison Shadow Poison, the popularity of the hero has significantly dropped, however, 6th place in popularity during a big event with the top American teams definitely signals the comeback of one of the most versatile and late-game relevant supports. Of course, a part of it is the increase in the damage from Shadow Poison Shadow Poison as well as an addition of an Aghanim's Scepter Aghanim's Scepter upgrade, however it is still his Disruption Disruption initiation or teammate save that probably plays the major role in his perceived viability.

When it comes to the amount of appearances in the actual game, Mirana Mirana is a clear winner with 50 picks in 68 matches - something that can be attributed to her incredible versatility and relevance at all stages of the game. Interestingly, the 15 bans this hero has received all came from the second half of the tournament. If one would manually go through all the matches of the American Qualifiers, it is clear, that in the initial stage of the tournament teams were happy to give away Mirana Mirana in the first picking phase as a better alternative to facing heroes like Lycan Lycan, Invoker Invoker, Sand King Sand King. By the end of the tournament it has changed, since most games in the play-offs featured a Mirana ban.

Her popularity could have also contributed to the popularity of the Shadow Demon Shadow Demon, since the only hero that can counter a well executed Disruption Disruption + Sacred Arrow Sacred Arrow combo is Abaddon Abaddon, who, despite the buffs, still remains very unpopular (Legion Commander Legion Commander is also capable of dispelling stuns, but she is not available in Captains Mode).

Sand King Sand King, surprisingly, has surged into the popularity list. Previously he was a niche pick for teams like Na'Vi, but recently got a lot of attention in America. Since he did not receive any significant buffs in the previous couple of patches, we believe that it is the meta shift to dual lanes that has caused this popularity increase. His ability to farm jungle with Sand Storm Sand Storm is unparalleled and his damage output and utility is arguably higher than of Crystal Maiden Crystal Maiden - a previous go to hero for a possible dual lane with a roaming jungle support.

The decrease in the mana cost for Blink Dagger Blink Dagger could also contribute to this popularity, since it is now possible to combo Epicenter Epicenter + Blink Dagger Blink Dagger + Burrowstrike Burrowstrike without the Arcane Boots Arcane Boots.

Invoker Invoker was incredibly strong in the push-heavy meta by the end of 6.80 era. However, in this particular tournament his Win Rate was ridiculously small - 16.67%. And that is with a rather significant amount of games.

The most valuable push item of the 6.80 - [missing item: necronomicon-3] was heavily nerfed. Not only are the Necronomicon units slower, but they also give away a huge bounty on death, making trades of Necro-units for a tower less appealing. The Invoker Invoker's Q/W build received some more direct nerfs in terms of an increased "channel" on the [missing skill: invoker-emp-5383]. Interestingly, if in the beginning of the tournament the Pick+Ban for Invoker was tied with Lycan Lycan and Batrider Batrider, by the end of it he was disregarded almost completely. That shows how amazingly fast a meta can develop in a short period of time and how big, important tournaments push the drafting stages to continuously evolve.

One of the heroes I am really happy I was wrong about is the Brewmaster Brewmaster. In our changelog analysis we have predicted little to no change to the popularity of the hero. In reality he was the 14th most popular hero and the added consistency to his Critical Strike and Evasion from Drunken Brawler Drunken Brawler not only made him popular, but allowed him to win 9 out of 17 games he appeared in. The result is far from amazing, but facing a decent amount of reworks and an increased skill requirement he can be considered a semi-new hero teams might not have had time to practice with.

Dark Seer Dark Seer, Io Io and Disruptor Disruptor and can be considered heroes that are beginning to make a comeback as well. After the drastic fall in popularity in the post-TI3 professional scene, they were 7th, 11th and 13th in terms of popularity in the event. Apart from a small buff to Disruptor's Kinetic Field Kinetic Field there were no particular changes to the skillset of the heroes or the items related to them.

Tidehunter Tidehunter is another hero that is gaining more attention. Being an extremely viable offlane with an access to the Ancient jungling as early as level 5, it is unsurprising that his popularity has increased. And winning 9 out of 14 games he was in is undoubtedly impressive.

Win Rate

Only heroes with 10+ games are included in the discussion

When it comes to Win Rate the winner of the tournament was Keeper of the Light Keeper of the Light. With a 75% Win Rate in 16 games (most of which were Aghanim's Scepter rush) we will probably see more of him in the main event and in the smaller tournaments. One of the games in the late stages of the tournament has actually featured a KotL + Phantom Lancer combo. Is the Cancer Lancer back in the meta? We shall see. So far it was the only game featuring Phantom Lancer Phantom Lancer and it was rather one-sided overall, not because of the combo.

Close seconds were Shadow Fiend Shadow Fiend and Enchantress Enchantress, both boasting a 72.22% Win Rate in 18 games. While enchantress is a popular pick among European teams like Na'Vi and [A]lliance, we believe competitive Shadow Fiend Shadow Fiend to be very region-specific. To a large extent it is the influence of Arteezy and his "pick a carry mid and let the enemy figure out which of the two (or three) cores they want to shut down, to be devastated by the other one (two) later". This philosophy has also made Morphling Morphling rather popular with a decent Win Rate of 57.14%.

Dragon Knight Dragon Knight and Wraith King Wraith King are in the third place in terms of Win Rate sitting at 69.23% and 68.42% respectively. They have also participated in a decent amount of games. While the latter was mostly played in the support role and the former in the mid one, they share the same trait - they are really hard to kill and even harder to ignore. Unsurprisingly, Wraith King Wraith King is also the top tier in our Tier List for 6.81

Clockwerk Clockwerk and Witch Doctor Witch Doctor finish the list of the most winning heroes of the American Qualifiers with 66.67% and 63.64% Win Rate. The Clockwerk Clockwerk pick has always been one of the more reliable picks, since he is great at countering any melee enemy core heroes and is capable of dividing the battlefield to give a short-term number advantage on one side of the Power Cogs Power Cogs. The Witch Doctor Witch Doctor pick is rather unconventional. The hero was out of the competitive scene for a long time and seeing him in action is really exciting. Fun fact: you can actually left-click on your Death Ward Death Ward and target the hero you in range you want to focus.

Dishonorable Mentions

Ember Spirit Ember Spirit is not only facing a really strong drop in Win Rate in the public matchmaking, but is becoming less relevant in the competitive scene. Losing 40 damage every 6 seconds from Sleight of Fist Sleight of Fist as well as 1 second of ensnare from level 3 Searing Chains Searing Chains made him a lot weaker than we expected. The hero retained his main features of amazing mobility and the ability to dish out considerable amounts of scaling damage from a safe spot, however it was not enough. Though, to be fair, he was only picked 4 times throughout the event and the tournament did not feature most prominent players on the hero.

Lifestealer Lifestealer is another "losing" hero with 5 lost games out of 5. With a recent focus on mobility as well as increase in popularity of Shadow Demon Shadow Demon, the poor Win Rate and popularity are understandable. Even when the hero is coupled with a decently popular Storm Spirit Storm Spirit (25/68 Picks+Bans). Another possible explanation for the poor performance is a gradual shift towards more late mid-game oriented playstyle of most teams - something an early mid-game hero finds hard to deal with.

A full list of heroes in the American Qualifiers can be found here

That concludes our review of the American Qualifiers meta and we can continue to the Weekly Trends in the public Matchmaking.

Public Matchmaking

When it comes to public Matchmaking the popularity of the hero is a very complex statistic that is affected by a lot of various factors that do not necessarily include the skill of a player, skill requirement for the hero or how fit he is for meta. A variety of external factors, such as Cosmetic items and Gimmicky buffs (e.g. Lich Lich Aghanim's Scepter upgrade) have a lot of an impact on what makes a popular hero.

We will have a look through the most drastic changes in either Win Rate or Popularity of the heroes in pubs and will try to find an explanation as to why these changes happened.

Beauty Contest

The release of the cosmetics for particular heroes undoubtedly has a strong short-term impact on the popularity of the hero. The three heroes mentioned here are the Winners of the Beauty contest with the highest popularity surge in a period of time - Alchemist Alchemist, Centaur Warrunner Centaur Warrunner and Bristleback Bristleback.

The update released on 9th of May included item sets for these Strength heroes as well as the introduction of the Dubai (UAE) server. Could the gold-hoarding hero's popularity been influenced by the increase in the number of players from one of the richest countries in the world? We don't know, but unlike other heroes in this section the popularity of Alchemist Alchemist did not decline as much after the initial "cosmetic boost" effects wore off.

Like a Pro

Both Shadow Fiend Shadow Fiend and Brewmaster Brewmaster have been rising in popularity ever since the American TI4 qualifiers, peaking at 10.60% and 6% popularity respectively. While these figures do not look impressive, compared to their popularity at the beginning of the month (right after the patch), they correspond to a 0.86% and 2.5% increase in popularity. That is especially significant for the Brewmaster Brewmaster, who almost doubled his presence in the public matchmaking.

Fall of the Dragon

There are always things that are incredibly hard to explain. Much like the ~4% increase of the Pudge Pudge Win Rate, there are a lot of possible explanations to the fall in Win Rate for Jakiro Jakiro:

While the introduction of an Aghanim's Scepter upgrade could have led to an increased amount of sub-optimal builds that Rushed the Scepter disregarding other common Support items, it does not seem to be the case, as there was no significant "shock" to the Win Rate trend right after the patch.

About a week ago, however, the Win Rate has started a gradual but persistent decline from 51.62% to 49.95%. A 1.67% decrease with no clear causes is peculiar and it will be hard to name one. If anything, it is probably a composition of several factors that will be mentioned.

  • Popularity Increase after the patch.

The best way to learn to play against a certain hero is to play against him enough to understand his weaknesses and strengths. The unavoidable increase in popularity of the hero with the introduction of an amazing, albeit gimmicky, Aghanim's Scepter Aghanim's Scepter upgrade to Macropyre Macropyre probably resulted in more people facing Jakiro and gradually learning not to get into Ice Path Ice Path (Which is not really hard to avoid in the first place).

  • Mobile Meta

Current competitive scene really favors mobile heroes. And mobile heroes is what Jakiro Jakiro hates the most. Not only does it make it really hard to land an Ice Path, but also reduces the time when the enemy is taking damage from Macropyre, making this hero a lot less effective. And since Blink Dagger Blink Dagger is getting more and more popular, on a large scale it could have significantly contributed to the losses of an otherwise great support.

  • Low lane presence

Jakiro is great in a Trilane vs. Trilane situation. He is pretty decent in a Trilane vs. Offlane. But in dual lanes favored by the competitive scene (Dual lane + Soft Jungler is increasingly popular) he is really sub-par. He is not the best in term of saving teammates, neither is he great at making things happen in a Dual vs. Offlane situation.

There are probably a lot of other factors we might have missed, so feel free to tell us your opinion in the comments.

Also, we will probably make the weekly trends less frequent, giving at least 10 days for some significant and interesting changes to take place.

Closing Comments

That concludes our Blog Post for today. We will be releasing the Meta analysis Blog Posts for each qualifier in each region, comparing how Dota is played in different parts of the world. I will also be working on a "Picks in Different Regions" Blog Post some time after the end of qualifiers to see the differences between Public Matchmaking picks.

As for a promised Giveaway for 2000 likes on our Facebook page - all you need to do is leave us a comment about why you think Jakiro's Win Rate has dropped in the section below. We will announce the prize some time this week so stay tuned!

As always:

Thank you for Reading!

More from The Dotabuff Blog
crwdns1033:054crwdne1033:0
Humg12

    About the 4% win rate increase for pudge: There was a bug with rot that made it so it dealt half damage to himself. It's been fixed now, which is why it is dropping again

    Yan

      Because more people are trying to get Aghanim's than before without realizing it's just not that good.

      NotEmber

        Saw a spelling mistake when talking about Jakiro's Aghanim Sceptre upgrade, you wrote something along the lines of Aganaim sceptre.

        Riot fix pls.

        Koala

          I think that jakiro dropped bacause of the mobility of heroes, just like you mentioned, when you have nothing to keep enemies in his ultimate his presence in game is poor

          Dr. Nele Karajlic

            Where can i find the Pick/Ban stats?

            Flying Squirrel

              I love Jakiro (he is one of my best characters). When the scepter upgrade came out I was intrigued but I kept my same build because he is not the best farming hero and I needed yo support. I have found that when im able to support properly my team wins a lot more. Scepter (unless the game went to very late game) would be a waste of gold.

              Ele: Source 2

                He dropped win rate because of the aghm update - more people played him, he got some popularity increase. But he is actually a hard hero to play, he requires some skill. More low skilled people played him->win rate decrease.

                Șeful banilor!

                  As people tend to get faster heroes, blinking heroes, blink daggers etc. Jakiro becomes useless. Just as nyx dropped when his stun was nerfed.

                  Piripaca

                    I think that the increasing excitement of people for playing with other support heroes that got a more appealing change combined with the phase of the meta did the job.
                    For the first argument, Jakiro as a support and often in pub games the ward-courier-do-everything-support got overcome by changes that seems pretty much more amazing on other ward-bla-bla-bla-supports, like infinite bouncing Lich's ult, like no restriction vision for KOTL or even the "you got two charges" of Shadow Demon maybe.
                    And about the bkb: with the increasing of the importance of early magical nukers as meta shifted for shorter games, I have the impression that more people rush for bkb before the damage glass-canon builds. This could be making jakiro pretty much useless earlier than it did before.
                    And all this is improvised speculation :)

                    Senpai

                      The Jakiro drop was probably because people don't stick him with someone that can either set up his stun, or people are maxing the E too quickly (because of the changes to it).

                      Tribot

                        The reason is people just picking it to try aghanim build and leave all support duty to rest of the team.

                        Levin

                          Jakiro's drop could also be partially due to the recent buffs to Liquid Fire and Dual Breath, encouraging more experimentation with different skill builds, which may or may not be very successful.

                          Vetr

                            I don't think Jakiro's loss rate is caused by any of the new balance changes such as the scepter or liquid fire and dual breath changes. I think it is more of the fact that a lot of people are choosing him for the first time because of the compendium hero challenge. Which leads to people using him who are inexperienced; and in a meta where he is a bad hero. I feel fairly certain that his scepter change is not the cause in anyway because many people who know about Jakiro realize that the length of his ult is almost irrelevant since the strategy isn't to run down and out, it is the side step it.

                            DC† | MartinDeth👌

                              Because trench tier loves aghanims. Vanguard and vlads used to be the norm. Well, Vanguard is still the most popular go-to trench tier item but with more aghs upgrades coming, it's beginning to threaten its crown

                              DotANote ♪

                                I don't think jakiro's change in win rate is anything substantial. Probably just reading too much into it. He could of had bad luck with the 10 hero challenge by showing up on a lot of people's 10 heroes that aren't used to playing him.

                                The King in the North

                                  I think Ele nailed it on the head for Jak's deceased winrate:
                                  "He dropped win rate because of the aghm update - more people played him, he got some popularity increase. But he is actually a hard hero to play, he requires some skill. More low skilled people played him->win rate decrease."
                                  Also, thanks for the article, very interesting read!
                                  PS, I'm looking forward to reading the same analysis on the SEA, Chinese and European Metas respectively, having all this background will make for some tantalizing TI4 context!

                                  crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                                  kairos

                                    aghs jakiro rush maybe,but i think the increase in popularity is what makes jak's winrate decreases,since jakiro isnt exactly the easiest hero,and adding the total played pool will add more chances to decrease the winrate for each loss.

                                    jig

                                      It is because Jakiros Ultimate is not that great in the first Place! While with heroes like Crystal Maiden or Sand King you are able to dish out a lot of magical damage, this happens in a really short ammount of item. Jakiros Ultimate needs a lot of time to be really effective. And who will stand the full amout of time in this Burning Hell?
                                      The other fact is, that it is really hard to land a proper Ultimate in fights without a proper setup. Of course you can just spill it into the fight, but the heroes can just walk out of it. Without any setup the best case scenario is, that heros will stay a maximum of time of arround 3 seconds in his Ulti, considering ice path hits and heros are slowed too. After this you just walk out and ignore it.
                                      By the Time jakiro has his aghanims Scepter there will be probably a Mekanism and/or a Pipe of Insight on the opposite Team which can completely counter the described best case scenario!
                                      So we see that there have to be a proper setup for his ulti. But the current meta doesnt feature that sort of setup. Void, Magnus, Enigma and maybe even DS are the best options here. All of those heroes are not that common in the current meta. Void of course would be the best Option. But with his low laning presence which you pointed out in the blog post jakiro can not secure the void farm he needs to have. With heroes like DS or Magnus you need really good team composition to play this wombo combo properly. And this is also a fact that tends to be missing in a lot of games.
                                      While i think jakiro is really strong because of his pushing Ability, having an OK AOE disable and a decent strength gain, he just does not fit in the current early to mid and mobile game styles with his really low Movement Speed, turn rate and actually low damage/burst output. BUT most of the people will just want to try the new aghanim effect, so they pick him in the pub games, ending up loosing because of the reasons stated above.

                                      crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                                      Reyals

                                        increase in popularity + some people seems to rush aghs on jakiro..

                                        and there a slight increase of jakiro push build (maxing liquid fire instead ice path first)
                                        liquid fire is good for pushing, but that not make jakiro a good pusher. He still best used as support

                                        Glaurung

                                          It raised back to 51,5% with 0,3% increase in popularity, so I think it was just a coincidence

                                          Pitch Blease

                                            I think it was the time when a lot of people tried to win with their last compendium heroes(as I also have 2-3 heroes left now) and it's not an easy hero to play with. I think it's going to rise back in the near future.

                                            crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                                            Choujeen

                                              jakiro has pretty long and obvious cast animations, probably everyone just got good and can avoid them.

                                              HolyDivinity

                                                I agree with most of the comments regarding Jakiro. The Aghanim buff has sparked curiosity and attracted more players to experiment (evidenced by the increased popularity). Let's face it, because [in many players' minds] Dota is as much about winning as it is about striving for that rampage, many of these new players of Jakiro are rushing Scepter instead of playing a support role and adding value to the team. I wouldn't be surprised if regular and adept players of Jakiro also tried out a rush Scepter build for lols. Curious to see if there is this big a win% difference in higher tier games and ranked/normal matchmaking

                                                Choaya<3

                                                  It does not sound relevant between win rate of pudge and jakiro, the increase in pudge's win rate is in no way affecting the jakiro's win rate. Recently, I actually saw MYM.Ryze used jakiro as a carry, he went for a 0 4 4 1 build at lv9, it is a really strong build when combined together with his team, but not a viable build in pub as the slow and damage output that dual fire breathe provides is much stronger. Apart from that, I do agree that the scepter-rush build on jakiro affects gameplay as supportive items will be ignored. In fact, some of the pubs are not good in this hero (can't land a good icepath and macropyre as well), but the scepter upgrade makes them want to play this hero which directly pull down the win rate.

                                                  crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                                                  Overdrive Ostrich

                                                    The problem with Jakiro is that like anny hero getting new aghs upgrade, it just makes the community try those for the extra oomph they provide. I don't think pubs can take advantage of the aghs benefits in the same way they can't take advantage of a nightstalker with aghanim.

                                                    Issaction

                                                      Well, besides the Blink Dagger meta, there's another large however temporary factor that actually happens quite often. When a Hero gets a new gimmick or ability (think tusk's snowball or Skeleton King's second active), people tend to try to use that gimmick instead of doing what they would normally do. Many people are rushing Aghanim's Scepter instead of buying Wards, a Mek, or a Force Staff. This strategy however, doesn't pan out as often as the other items as his ultimate is extremely situational compared to forcing an enemy or ally into position or healing your team instantly to win a fight. Because of this, the winrate goes down temporarily. Eventually, it will return to what it previously was, or at least very close to it.

                                                      EviL'

                                                        The Heroes which are good vs Jakiro recieved buffs

                                                        Gaiar Alata

                                                          well jakiro isn't really a hero which gets a lot of farm. Also even when he is played as a 1 position(#C9Dota) he almost never gets an aghanims because there are more important items for him to get earlier. now a lot of peope want to try the aghanim and rush it. winrate explained

                                                          Umu

                                                            I think jakiro's win rate drop is because his agh buff...that probably caused a lot jakiros to try to save for that agh and once they got it it's fat below their expectation. The money was pretty much wasted for most jakiro in pub to get an agh since this hero requires a lot teamwork to be powerful. Jakiro by himself is one of the weakest hero in the game, no escapes, no very reliable stun, no instant nuke and not by any means mobile, although fighting in his ult is the one of the worst thing ever in dota2 but it require some teamwork to limit the enemies' mobility, like a big cog or rp or blackhole...but that kind of teamwork is already too much to ask from pub( i've seen a lot people cant even execute the storm spirit & naix combo...which should only require each player press R...once..).Therefore the new jakiro wasted his money on agh and failed on supporting yet not contributing in teamfights. Of course his win rate will drop ;P.

                                                            JustinPlaysDota

                                                              The drop in Jakiro's win rate, in my opinion, corresponds with his popularity increase and the fact that win popularity increases win rates (normally) decline as the hero is now being used more by unskilled players. Aghanim scepter rushes also add to the fact probably, seeing as it isn't as good as an item as it seems, so rushing it over support items (including wards + magic wand + boots + bracer(s)) is actually really bad. And as we all know, wards win wars Squidward.

                                                              mike374040

                                                                Because more noobs is playing him

                                                                Gnosis

                                                                  The drop in winrate for jakiro is due to the fact that although aghanim's scepter is now a decent buff, it is still a buff that works after buying a 4200 gold item and macropyre is still easy to dodge without help

                                                                  Worst amongst the Best

                                                                    When I saw KOTL had the highest win rate i was ROFL

                                                                    mllcg

                                                                      basically, the winrate dropped coz more people are playing it. the number of wins required needs to be higher.

                                                                      simple maths

                                                                      Makhnovtchina

                                                                        Jakiro's aghs isn't a new aghs, his aghs which was shit (but already rushed by some idiots) is still shit but upgraded.
                                                                        Mek is core, then eul's, force staff, pipe, shiva's are good, but aghs is real bad (would be good if it made it wider, not longer)

                                                                        Dredmor

                                                                          Jakiro's Win Rate has dropped due to the high mobility meta, the recent blink dagger buff is a big deal!

                                                                          Spheric Rain

                                                                            As you've mentioned, in dual lanes, Jakiro is sub-par. In order for Jakiro to be able to get his Aghanim's Scepter, he needs to be either an offlane or mid solo. Sadly, both of this rarely happen. In a support position, it is almost impossible for Jakiro to get an Aghanim's Scepter without skipping his other support core items.

                                                                            Hence, the decrease in win-rate probably came from bad decision of players, such as trying to get an Aghanim's Scepter without realizing that it is a situational item. Of course, the increase from the number of players that started to play this hero because of the patch update contributed to this as well, since learning takes time and probably some failures too.

                                                                            Silphi

                                                                              I gues the jakiro drop is mainly due to the supposed attractiveness of his Agha upgrade to new player in pub. This combined with those same people rushing Agha while not supporting leads to an increase of defeat as it is a hard support to master and a poor farmer.

                                                                              mr longevity

                                                                                I think your pondering that Alchemist's increase in popularity may be due to the new UAE server is bordering on the incredibly racist when you put it down to the region's money. It evokes the stereotype of the money-grabbing Sheikh, one of the most pervasive stereotypes in the Western world, after the Muslim terrorist. Very ill thought out comment.

                                                                                520107 | 忧郁孤独者

                                                                                  I think that the mobility is quite a fair reason to the drop in Jakiro's winrate, after the, let's not deny it at all, HUGE buff to Blink Dagger where it costs no mana makes it a priority item for several players, especially the mid-top tier pub players, and appealing to previous comments concerning lower skilled players now playing Jakiro more due to the buff of Aghanims Sceptre, in conjunction with the Blink Dagger buff, these players aren't often very skilled at landing Ice Paths accurately.

                                                                                  crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                                                                                  BronzeLeagueHero

                                                                                    i think Jak is having a major win rate decrease mainly because of several reasons:
                                                                                    1. people are rushing aghs, therefore not buying wards, flying courier, etc. since they have no farm (usually) they end up being useless for the rest of the game
                                                                                    2. people cannot land icepaths nor keep people in macropyre. Who cares about longer range when enemies can just walk right out of it? it only is good with a team with incredible amounts of cc.
                                                                                    3. people play the hero wrong, constantly team fighting and not doing the best thing a jak can do: taking towers. liquid fire is a pain in the arse to deal with for the enemy team.
                                                                                    4. worng skill leveling. Many jak players tend to max icepath and dual breath, ignoring liquid fire. in my opinion, liquid fire and icepath should be maxxed first, since liquid fire helps you a lot more than dual breath. this leads to lack of early game pressure form jak players, making their games harder.

                                                                                    Beeps! - twitch.tv/beepsbps

                                                                                      I think as many others have already said, that Jakiro's dropped win rate has to do alot with more people playing him, often those new to the hero, having to play against a generally improved hero base in the public realm for many players and people. There's so many people getting better at their own player/team stratergies, that players that are new to hero's like Jakiro are going to have a hard time adjusting.

                                                                                      Thank you for the blog post, and the prize giveaway; cheers! :D

                                                                                      Chad King

                                                                                        Forget Jakiro, can someone please explain why Necrophos has the highest win rate as of 6.81.
                                                                                        A rise of about 4%, no mention of this anywhere

                                                                                        Duke of Earl Grey tea

                                                                                          People are playing Jakiro wrong. MOST POPULAR ABILITY BUILD shows maxing ice path first. WRONG. Liquid fire is one of the best harassment tools that any support could wish for. That plus dual breath, push lanes, take early towers. Rotate and repeat.

                                                                                          Saoulfou

                                                                                            I think it's because of treant who's getting mroe and mroe popular. People who play jakiro know that his strength this patch is pushing tower. A permanent liquid fire on a tower deals a tons of damage. THe thing about treant being more popular is that he can heal back the tower which lead to less gold/space for jakiros team. Eventually, this affect its team as a whole since as you mentioned in the blog, jakiro is not good agaisnt mobility heroes and treant counter his biggest strength.

                                                                                            MackeRIFIC

                                                                                              The post was pretty much correct about the causes of those playing Jakiro, mostly due to an increase in popularity. His skillset is nuanced and requires timing, and when players unfamiliar with him attempt them, it can have poor results. More importantly, his turn rate is horrible, meaning that as players get more familiar with playing against him, they have learned how better to avoid and destroy him

                                                                                              Mikkei Combine

                                                                                                @ Badger However dropping macropyre in the roshan pit when you are trying to contest it is pretty damn huge.

                                                                                                But as I have stated before, some of these picks are mostly cause of people infatuated with playstyles not because of the change of the hero. Like brewmaster, I do not think people started playing him just because of that minor change in his E haha and same with Shadow fiend with the magic immunity debuff. Its just like last patch when naga siren became a carry again after she was nerfed 2-3 times in a row. She was a carry, got nerfed, became a support, got nerfed, and then became a carry again, got nerfed, now I hardly see her played. Morphling is picked quite a bunch now, but what has been changed about him?

                                                                                                -XoD^

                                                                                                  I'm gonna post a pointless comment which contributes nothing to the discussion which (probably) hasn't already been mentioned by stating that adding a useless aghanims effect (Macropyre rarely helps for teamfights as no one stays in it for the full duration, unless you're contesting them at roshan, and even then.. not even in my gg op sub 3k mm bracket.) prolly had something to do with it, as many players would opt for rushing it, over support items. Especially in lower brackets, where majority of the player base is.

                                                                                                  Shaddox

                                                                                                    I'm gonna go against the crowd here and say that the reason Jakiro is falling behind is because of increasing popularity in pubs of heroes like Invoker, Sniper, Drow, Bloodseeker, PA, Viper, heroes which more or less completely destroy Jakiro before he does anything in a teamfight.

                                                                                                    Sir whiskers VONBONBON

                                                                                                      Got an 11 game win streak with Jakiro. He's more of a situational pick in my opinion. Having an enemy that can lock down your carries will be a good pick against them with the AOE he offers, and the fact that his 3rd ability doesn't take the creeps agro, means he can harass without taking too much damage from his awful cast animation. That's all Jakiro sucks at, is his cast animation.