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KawaiiSocks

    I think I will continue updating the Fantasy League guide in the comment section here, so:

    Main Event Day One Quick Thoughts:

    We are picking from TNC, VP, PSG.LGD and Vici Gaming, since they are playing a bo3.

    MID:

    Somnus/Maybe is a clear leader in this category. Not only does he have the second highest average score of all mid players, but he also has an arguably easier matchup vs. Virtus.Pro. The relative power levels between the teams in different groups will remain unknown until after the first series of matches, but VP does look subjectively weaker than they did last year and, perhaps more importantly, weaker than PSG.LGD.

    You could argue for Armel/Ori simply because their series are more evenly matched (=longer games) and both of them are good in terms of stats, but so far the game length didn’t necessarily directly correlate with the amount of fantasy points for core players. Despite having an average game length of ~50 minutes on TNC, compared to ~38 minutes on PSG.LGD, the average amount of fantasy points earned by Somnus/Maybe is 1.3 points higher than Armel.

    CORE:

    Paparazi and Gabbi are the two highest scoring cores in the games tomorrow, but they are playing against each other, so that might be a bit of a problem. Ame is only 0.8 points behind them and should probably be one of your guaranteed choices.

    Second choice should really depend on who you believe is going to win in VG vs. TNC. Vici Gaming does look like a stronger team to us, but upsets do happen. We are still going with Paparazi, since stats-wise they are a better team with higher KDA and overall winrate.

    SUPPORTS:

    VG.Dy all the way. No matter what happens, he scores incredibly well in his games and he is also playing against TNC, who have the highest game average of all teams. It is probably the safest pick for Day 1 of the main event.

    Second support is a bit harder. Tims is statistically the second best choice and the man is a beast of a player. Third best choice is LGD.xNova and he is 1.1 points behind on average.

    It would be easy to simply tell you to go for Tims, but with position four supports we really need to take the matchup into account and, as discussed previously, we lean towards Vici Gaming.

    Tims average for the games they lose in is 15.46. It is 18.39 overall and 20.67 when TNC wins. xNova scores 17.25 on average. He also scores 20.17 when they lose, but PSG.LGD only lost three times so it is hardly significant data. Overall, as you can see, it is important for position four supports to take off and be on a winning team to outperform position five supports.

    Since only two best games of a bo3 count for fantasy, there are three different expected outcomes for Tims: 30.92 if they lose two games in a row, 36.13 if they manage to win one game, but still lose the series and 41.34 if they win the series.

    xNova, as a position five support, is expected to score 34.5 regardless of the outcome, at least in our super-simple (and statistically somewhat stupid) model.

    While writing this I was trying to construct an argument for xNova and how it is a better choice, but after doing my weird calculations and realising that TNC taking a game off VG is definitely not impossible, I am finally convinced that Tims is worth the risk.

    Lineup for Day 1 of the Main Event:

    Paparazi, Ame, Somnus, Dy and Tims

    RAVTagsta

      Mr kawaii fantasy lord whatd you put down for your bracket predictions

      Reprobate

        Even IO carry did worked.

        Appendix Vermiformis

          So what do you think about the unpicked heroes? (Surprisingly, no heroes are ignored, just unpicked/unbanned)

          Dark Seer is somewhat a bit of surprise to me. Is it because he's in awkward position between elusive offlane vs tank offlane? Or is it due to popularity of melee carries?

          KotL also is a bit of surprise with his buff on "mana leak". Is it because meta favors a much tankier support?

          Clockwerk has the same position as Dark Seer. Although he has a good combination of nuke and better innitiation, he's still unpicked

          Again another offlane, Brewmaster and i am seeing a bit of pattern here. All 3 are melee offlane who isn't tanky but also has no reliable escape. Even Underlord has been picked at least once, but no room for them?

          The last but actually pretty predictable are Ursa. Ursa was really kiteable and basicly Troll Warlord without disable (and again, no good escape).

          But what do you guys think? I am just an ancient 1 who barely know how today's meta work

          Maho Minami

            Not a single word about Io carry? Seriously?

            crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
            MM.Ugh Brock Hall

              For those wondering about the IO carry, it's a bit of a misguidance to call that the 'carry'. Yes he got priority farm, sure he got a maelstrom, but the real carry was Topson in the game, and Ana ended up having more deaths than kills in the game. It worked out more than it straight worked if you ask me.

              ♏ikeeCS ツ

                ^^^

                On group stage Ana do IO 4 times with K/D/A :
                1st : 11/5/16 (giving 36% total damage from team)
                2nd : 9/2/6 (36% damage)
                3rd : 6/1/16 (28% damage)
                4th : 4/6/14 (28% damage)

                So for me, Ana also carrying the game.

                crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                RAVTagsta

                  I think I will continue updating the Fantasy League guide in the comment section here, so:
                  ye good joke buddy

                  MM.Ugh Brock Hall

                    @♏ikeeCS ツ

                    He did it more than once? Ok that's fair.

                    KawaiiSocks

                      Main Event Day Two Quick Thoughts:

                      As the tournament progress these kinda get easier, so for the first time quick thoughts are actually going to be quick)

                      SUPPORTS:

                      Pieliedie would be close to a must. Despite having one of the toughest teams to play against tomorrow, we still have full faith in our position five support fantasy meta. Though there is a chance OG will seal the deal too fast, so there are other options.

                      Fly is a good, consistent pick that has one of the highest averages. Their match against Team Secret can be a stomp, but we have more faith in EG than we do in Newbee to put up a long, grueling fight, or, possibly, even win the game. For the same reasons, Puppey can be a decent pick as well.

                      There is an argument to be made about TNC supports, namely Eyyou. He outscores Puppey in terms of averages and is not as matchup-dependant as Tims. It might be a bit too risky to go for Tims in TNC vs Liquid scenario, though TNC might actually look better. Either way it is going to be a long series.

                      So, Pieliedie if you believe in Newbee and don't think they are going to be stomped by OG.
                      Eyyou, if you think Liquid and TNC are matched at least evenly.
                      Tims, if you think TNC looks better than Liquid.
                      Fly and Puppey if you are boring and just want consistent picks.

                      We are going with Eyyou and Fly. As always, mix of fun and consistency that is yet to fail us.

                      MID

                      Sumail is a great pick if you consider EG to be on par or not significantly behind Team Secret.
                      Armel, if you believe in the power of TNC Predator.
                      Topson, if you think Newbee will put up enough of a fight for the series to actually last more than two games, 30 minutes each. (OG has one of the statistically lowest game length averages)

                      We will go with Sumail.

                      CORES

                      Yawar is a top scoring core, but the matchup will probably spoil his average. Nisha turned out to be a consistent winner and a pretty terrible scorer, same with Ana. Miracle... was disappointing fantasy-wise this year.

                      We are going to go with Gabbi as one of our picks. TNC and Liquid should battle it out for long enough so that even in losses, he scores at least something. Second pick should really depend on what you personally believe in.

                      Go Yawar for great points if they manage to fight OG.
                      Go Ana if you think he will actually have to break a sweat when playing against Newbee.
                      Go Ramzes if you want boring and consistent.
                      Go Miracle if you still believe.

                      Gabbi is a bit of an unknown, so I will consider him our "crazy fun" pick that can pay off greatly or do close to nothing. Therefore I will get Ramzes for simple, consistent scoring.

                      Final Lineup for Day 2 of the main event:

                      Ramzes, Gabbi, Sumail, Eyyou, Fly

                      crwdns1299:0crwdne1299:0
                      Reprobate
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                        KawaiiSocks

                          Main Event Day Three Quick Thoughts:

                          MIDS:

                          The moment I said these will get easier, they got so much harder. We have EG that look strong and OG that look strong, but... weird? We have LGD vs. Vici Gaming, who are matched somewhat evenly. We have the fifth best mid scorer in CCnC playing against Infamous and it is yet another match that is impossible to bet on. Finally, we have Secret vs. Mineski, where Secret are still favorites, but MidOne is such a terrible fantasy scorer...

                          I think I will simply go with Sumail and his best average. I still think EG will put up a fight and might even win the series. And Sumail scores well even in games he loses anyways.

                          If you really believe in the power of friendship and think EG will lose the series in a spectacular fashion, go with Somnus/Maybe who is the second best pick.

                          CORES:

                          Nisha is going to be our safe, boring pick. We failed with Ramzes today, but Secret did look a lot more convincing during the group stage and looked overall decent in the series against EG. It's just that EG looked really, really, really hungry.

                          We prefer to have one safe and one "risky" pick in our fantasy lineups, and we will bet on PSG.LGD in their series against Vici Gaming. Ame is in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy scoring and is no match for Paparazi, but we expect the latter to lose and cores generally don't do well in losing games. If you think Vici Gaming are going to win, definitely go with big Papa on this one, since he is the top scorer.

                          Moreover, it might look like Infamous aren't going to make it further and Newbee will put a stop on their Cinderella story, but I don't buy it. These guys are just the right kind of crazy and relentless to actually make it work. So despite great averages, it is hard to consider Yawar as one of the options. He is a bit too risky even for our risky spot.

                          SUPPORTS:

                          At least this one is easy. Dy and Fly: position five supports, so they don't care about the match outcome, top scorers, will probably have tough, long series etc. etc. etc. We have enough volatility with cores and mids as it is, so these two should round up the roster pretty well.